This Sunday the second round of presidential elections will take place in Argentina ; In it, the current Minister of Economy, Sérgio Massa (51 years old), candidate of the situationist “União pela Pátria” (Peronist), and an outsider from the traditional political system, the economist self-defined as anarcho-capitalist, Javier Milei (53 years old) , candidate of the new (ultra)right party “A Liberdade Avança”.
Milei has an explosive character. Her aggressiveness is symbolized by the chainsaw she wields during campaign events. Her speeches attack politicians (“the caste”) and the State, seen as an agent that restricts freedoms; insults those he deems to be socialists, from Keynes to Pope Francis (whom he said is the representative of the evil one on Earth); claims that social justice is theft.
Among his economic proposals are to close the Central Bank, the dollarisation of the economy, an organ market, vouchers for Education, the rapid and radical reduction of public spending and the elimination of social transfers.
The promise to cut relations with Brazil and China, two of the country’s main trading partners , because they are ‘communist’ completes the picture.
In his first foray into politics, Milei was elected federal deputy in 2021, but he frequently missed sessions, or slept in them, and often abstained or left before voting.
In comparison, Massa is more conventional. A politician who has long been active in Peronism, he was a state deputy and mayor until he became chief of staff in Cristina Kirchner ‘s first government , a position in which he remained for a year.
He later became an opponent of Kirchnerism, and with his own version of Peronism, the Renewal Front, he was elected national deputy in 2013. He was a candidate for president in 2015, coming third.
For the 2019 elections, most Peronist currents, including yours, closed with the candidacy of Alberto Fernández . Massa became president of the Chamber and in mid-2022 he became Minister of Economy.
In his proposals, he always emphasizes the need for a major agreement to end the country’s crisis, and promises to call opponents to his government.
A claim with unprecedented characteristics
In addition to the characteristics of the candidates, this election can be considered the most important in the 40 years since the return to democracy.
I attribute this special character to this election because it is the first time that a candidate, Milei, has reached the decisive stage, who rejects the politics of memory for truth and justice, “Never Again”, the cornerstone of the reconstruction of democracy in the country .
The right-wing candidate and his vice-president, lawyer Victoria Villarruel, have repeatedly criticized these policies, minimizing the dictatorship’s genocidal plan (1976-1983), attributing the disappearances and torture to ‘some excesses’. The emergence of this candidate arises from the complicated economic situation , for which the government of President Alberto Fernández has not found answers.
The economy has suffered an acceleration in inflation in recent months and international reserves are at very low values. There are those who say that this is the biggest crisis in Argentine history, which reveals an enormous lack of memory.
The economy during the current government grew at low but positive rates, as did employment, especially industrial employment; By the way, the industry itself is presenting very satisfactory results at a difficult time.
It would be absurd, for example, to want to compare this situation with that of 2002, the beginning of the current political cycle.
That year, Argentina had record unemployment, and was coming from a 200% devaluation after years of convertibility ; the country was heavily in debt in dollars, including to the IMF. The middle classes were angry because their savings, supposedly in dollars, were transferred to pesos with significant losses.
If the situation in which President Alberto Fernández took office was complicated, the situation certainly got much worse with the pandemic. The measures adopted to combat it managed to reasonably maintain the level of activity, in addition to partially compensating the income of those whose activities had been forcibly halted.
The restrictions on mobility, however, were considered exaggerated by a significant portion of the population, a rejection encouraged by the mainstream media completely aligned with the opposition.
From 2021, the turn to the right
In the 2021 legislative elections, Mudemos (now Juntos pela Change), a coalition that supported President Macri, obtained 43% of the votes, while Kirchnerism/Peronism only 35%.
In this context of public opinion turning to the right, attention was drawn to the surprising vote, in the legislative elections in the City of Buenos Aires last October, of a new party, A Liberdade Avança, which obtained 17% of the votes. The person who headed this party was, precisely, Javier Milei.
The year 2022 was very complicated for President Fernández’s government.
Several disputes between him and his vice-president, the drop in his popularity (which did not extend to Cristina), an exceptional drought that harmed agriculture, the retraction of the world economy due to the war in Ukraine, in addition to the departure of his Minister of Economy , Martín Guzmán, led some to think that he would not be able to complete his term.
The appointment of Sérgio Massa as Minister of Economy managed to stop the run against the dollar, bringing some calm to a very weakened economy. These difficulties continued in 2023, especially with the systematic failure of attempts to reduce inflation.
Despite this, Massa’s image as the effective leader of the government was consolidated. And, when it came to choosing the Peronist candidate, he ended up being supported by almost all sectors.
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Milei’s rise
At the beginning of the 2023 campaign, Milei’s candidacy was well received by conservatives who assumed that he would reach an essentially poor, male and young audience, a sector that historically supported Peronist candidates – and thus taking votes from them.
The complicated Argentine electoral calendar, in which provinces and municipalities can choose the day of the elections, has meant that there have been numerous local clashes since March. In practically all elections there were regional parties aligned with Milei.
They all obtained less than 15% of the votes and, in the vast majority of cases, did not reach 5%.
The Argentine electoral system also adopts simultaneous and mandatory primary elections. All parties must hold internal elections, even when they have a single candidate, as only lists that obtain at least 1.5% in the primaries can compete in elections.
Before these elections, held on August 13, there was a certain script in the air, in which research institutes and the mainstream press coincided. In this reading, Juntos pela Change (JxM) would come in first place, Peronism in second and Milei in third.
Therefore, the only relevant dispute would take place within JxM, to see whether the candidate would be Horácio Rodriguez Larreta, from the more moderate sector (the doves) or Patrícia Bullrich, from the more aggressive sector (the falcons).
It followed the script saying that, in the first or second round, Milei would end up supporting the JxM candidate, and he would prevail in the elections with a margin greater than 60% of the votes, guaranteeing the strength to carry out radical liberalizing changes.
To everyone’s surprise, Milei came first in the primaries, winning in 16 of the country’s 24 districts; Peronism won 5 and JxM, 3. The difference between the three parties was minimal, 2.8% from the first, Milei, to the third, Massa, while Patrícia Bullrich, winner of the JxM internal, came second .
This situation caused confusion among the economic elites who supported JxM. Bullrich’s candidacy began to founder the day after the primaries, as a confrontation seemed to be crystallizing between Milei on the right and Massa on the center and center-left, with no room for a right devoid of the charm of novelty.
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Campaign full of surprises
Finally, in the first round of elections, on 10/22, there was another surprise: the Peronist candidate jumped from third to first, with 36.7%, Milei remained stagnant at 30% and JxM only managed 23.8%.
Massa imposed itself in 13 districts, Milei in 10 and JxM only remained in its stronghold in the city of Buenos Aires. This simple sum of percentages, however, hides that participation in the first round increased by 7% compared to the primaries, and that the number of blank votes fell by half.
The question in the second round will be to see where the votes of this third part of the electorate that did not vote for Massa or Milei go. Shortly after the first round, he obtained the support of former president Mauricio Macri and Bullrich.
This does not mean, however, support from the entire JxM: several sectors propose voting blank, some prefer freedom of action, and others have declared support for Massa.
The left is supposed to vote for Massa or in white, and among Schiaretti’s followers many support Massa, despite the candidate appearing to be more sympathetic to Milei.
In the mandatory debate between the candidates, held on November 12th, there was a finding, even among right-wing journalists, that Massa did much better.
Milei was unable to corner the candidate who is minister of an economy in a difficult situation, while Massa solidly attacked the inconsistencies in Milei’s proposals and asked him if he would carry out his most bombastic proposals.
Milei’s character certainly alienates many moderate voters, and his alliance with the unpopular Macri may scare away those who believed in his distance from the ‘caste’. On the other hand, the difficult economic situation works against Massa.
I believe that, despite these difficulties, Argentines will know how to choose the most balanced path, avoiding a leap in the dark whose consequences are unpredictable.
Ramon Garcia Fernandez, Professor Titular, Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC)
*This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
