Tensions between the EU and China have increased over anti-subsidy duties first imposed by the European Union on Chinese-made electric cars. In retaliation, China’s commerce ministry says it has opened an anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and its by-products from the EU. This is a big blow to EU pork exports, which are already facing a downward turn in production.
The EU has been the world’s second-biggest producer of pork after China and the biggest exporter of pork and pork products. However, the bloc has been exporting about 13% of its total production to mostly China. US Meat Export Federation data shows that the EU’s pork production has fallen by 25 % from its peak a few years ago – the lowest level in nearly 25 years.
Forecasts suggest a continued decline in EU pork production by a marginal 0.72% year-on-year. The downward spiral is ascribed to decreased pig slaughter numbers, a result of a contracting pig herd driven by economic constraints, especially the outbreak of the Avian Swine Flu (ASF). The reduction is also connected to economic issues, particularly rising production input costs such as feed prices.
As a result, many EU producers chose to send their pigs to slaughter to sustain their enterprises in a hard economic setting. The recent trade tensions between the EU and China have also boosted Russia’s pork Exports. Data shows Russian pork exports surged by 13.3 percent to 223,000 tonnes in the period from 2014 to 2023. In this period, pork production in Russia grew by almost 60% to 4.628 million tonnes in 2023 after reaching 4.532 million tonnes in 2022 and is forecast to increase to 4.986 million tonnes in 2024.
Russian pork gained access to the Chinese market in the first quarter of 2024. RusAgro, a large Russian pig producer, delivered the first pork to China in March 2024. Brazil Is another BRICS country that could benefit from China-EU trade tensions. China and Brazil already have an agreement in place. Brazil had 106 plants cleared for export to China, including 47 for poultry, 41 for beef, 17 for pork, and 1 for donkey meat.
In 2023, the Asian nation imported 2.2 million tons of meat from Brazil, totalling over $8.2 billion. An Asian-based trader who deals in animal feed told Reuters that Brazil, China’s main agricultural trading partner, looked to benefit from any EU trade disruption. Anti-dumping duties could hit Europe hard as China’s pork purchases from Europe include parts such as feet, ears, and offal that tend to only be used for pet food rather than human consumption in Europe.
Another BRICS+ country South Africa is reportedly prone to constant disease outbreaks it is rather difficult and risky to expand the industry. The South African pork industry is especially interested in the fast-growing pork-consuming countries of Asia as growth markets. Meanwhile, India is the 46th largest exporter of pig meat in the world. In 2022, India exported $3.75M in pig meat.
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