In the first quarter of 2024, the number of marriages in China returned to typical levels following concerns of a decline. The year 2023 saw a significant rebound in marriages, with 5.69 million couples registering in the first three quarters, ending a nine-year decline and pushing the annual total above 7 million for the first time since 2021.
Several factors contributed to the surge in marriages in 2023. The easing of pandemic restrictions allowed postponed marriages to finally take place, and government policies aimed at encouraging marriage and childbirth further stimulated interest. This led to a temporary boost in the wedding economy, with increased demand for wedding banquets and photography services.
Birth rates are a critical factor in determining a country’s demographic sustainability. A stable or increasing birth rate ensures that the population grows or at least maintains its size, providing a steady supply of young people to replace older generations. This replacement is essential for maintaining a balanced age structure and avoiding the problems associated with an ageing population, such as increased dependency ratios and pressure on social services.
In countries with ageing populations and low birth rates, there are fewer workers to support retirees. This imbalance can lead to increased financial strain on pension systems and healthcare services. Higher birth rates help ensure that there are enough working-age people to sustain these systems, providing economic stability and social security for all age groups.
Therefore, a robust birth rate contributes to a larger workforce, which is vital for economic growth and productivity. Young people entering the labour market bring new skills, innovation, and energy. They support economic activities, pay taxes, and contribute to social security systems. Countries with declining birth rates may face labour shortages, which can hinder economic expansion and reduce competitiveness in the global market
However, the return to ‘normal’ levels in early 2024 indicates that the underlying demographic challenges remain unresolved. The average age of first marriages in China has risen significantly, with many young people delaying or forgoing marriage altogether due to economic pressures, high housing costs, and changing social attitudes.
In 2022, China’s birth rate fell to a historic low, with fewer than 10 million newborns, exacerbating concerns about the long-term economic implications of a shrinking workforce. Despite efforts to incentivise marriage and childbirth, young people remain skeptical, often viewing the high economic costs and lifestyle constraints as deterrents. A recent survey by the Chinese Communist Party’s Youth League found that a significant portion of Generation Z does not see marriage as essential, with many prioritising personal freedom and career development over traditional family structures.
The implications of these trends are significant for China’s future productivity. An ageing population without sufficient younger replacements could strain social services and reduce economic dynamism. As policymakers continue to address these demographic shifts, the effectiveness of their strategies will be crucial in determining China’s socio-economic trajectory in the coming decades.
Classic examples of countries that have suffered the same fate are Japan and Italy. These two countries are struggling with low birth rates and ageing populations. Japan’s birth rate has been declining for decades, leading to a shrinking workforce and increased pressure on social services. The government has introduced various measures to encourage higher birth rates, such as better childcare support and workplace reforms. Italy faces similar issues, with low birth rates threatening economic stability.
Policies in Italy focus on family benefits and improving work-life balance to encourage young people to have more children. Consequently, China’s economic progress faces headwinds as it strives to balance productivity with the need for robust social support systems to cater to its ageing demographic. This demographic transition necessitates comprehensive policy reforms to sustain economic growth and social stability in the long run.
An increase in marriages typically leads to a rise in birth rates, as married couples are more likely to have children. Birth rates are a fundamental aspect of a country’s demographic and economic health. A stable or increasing birth rate supports demographic sustainability, economic growth, and social security systems, while also fostering innovation and cultural vibrancy. Governments must proactively address declining birth rates through comprehensive policies to ensure long-term stability and prosperity.
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