Is Iran close to a nuclear bomb? An earthquake sparks question

Iran is an earthquake-prone country, but a quake on October 5 has started chatter about whether Iran conducted a nuclear test. The timing of the seismic activity and the location raised eyebrows. However, there has been no official word from Tehran, but experts outside the country believe Iran is closer than ever to acquiring a nuclear weapon, amid tensions with Israel.

An earthquake, measuring 4.4 on the Richter scale, was recorded in Aradan County in Semnan Province at 10:45 am, Mehr News Agency reported. The earthquake struck at a depth of 12 km, it said, quoting the Institute of Geophysics of the University of Tehran.

Though there is no official confirmation or denial, some handles on X have also shared graphs, showing how the seismic activity corresponds to a temblor associated with nuclear tests. No expert has confirmed any of these.

IS IRAN CLOSE TO A NUCLEAR BOMB?

“Iran can produce nuclear weapons far more rapidly than expected,” said The Heritage Foundation on October 1. It quoted a senior Iranian lawmaker saying that there was only a “one-week gap from the issuance of the order to the first test” of a nuclear bomb. That remark was made in April. There is no doubt that Iran’s nuclear programme is in advanced stages.

In an interview with The Guardian, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak said a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities might not be much of a setback as its programme was too far advanced. The West has for decades accused Iran of pursuing a military nuclear programme under the guise of civilian nuclear projects. In 2010, the Stuxnet malware was detected at Iran’s biggest nuclear facility in Natanz. It was reported that the US and Israel used Stuxnet to disable centrifuges, setting back Iran’s nuclear programme by 5 years.

In 2015, Iran accepted restrictions on uranium enrichment — crucial for nuclear weapons — in lieu of easing of sanctions against it. That pact actually lasted for three years.

It was reported that Iran is closer than ever to reaching the 90% uranium enrichment grade that is required to manufacture a nuclear bomb, The Heritage Foundation report, citing International Atomic Energy Agency official, said in October 2024.

HOW FAR IS IRAN FROM GETTING A FUNCTIONAL N-WEAPON?

So, if Iran does lay its hands on weapons-grade uranium and conducts a nuclear test, how far is it from a functional nuclear weapon?

“… Iran is a de facto threshold country. They do not have a weapon yet – but it may take them a year to have one, and even half a decade to have a small arsenal,” former Israeli PM Ehud Barak told The Guardian in the October 4 interview.

The New York Times in a report on October 2 said it wasn’t a matter of weeks but could take months or even a year for Iran to make a nuclear weapon. “It takes advanced metallurgy and engineering to make a nuclear weapon,” it said.

An electronic firing system would be needed to make explosives, which can compress a nuclear core and start a chain reaction that emits nuclear energy. The warhead then must be tested time and again to ensure it can bear extremely high levels of heat, the NYT explained. Then explosive testing would be required to ensure the warhead detonates at the expected time, it added.

“I don’t think there’s a danger that Iran this year is going to start exploding nuclear weapons,” Houston G Wood, an emeritus professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at the University of Virginia, told The New York Times.

Though experts are suggesting that Iran might be months away from a nuclear weapon, this is also the closest it has ever been to one. This could also be the reason, some pundits suggest, why Israel has gone slow with its counterattack despite a huge provocation by Iran. Israel is an undeclared nuclear power, and Iran getting nuclear weapons of its own would place the Middle East on a nuclear powder keg, given the crisis in the region.