By Argemiro Teixeira Leite Filho, Researcher at the Center for Remote Sensing (CSR), Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG)
The current drought situation in the Amazon, which gained a new level of severity this year, is influenced by two exceptional climatic conditions: the abnormally high water temperature of the North Atlantic and the presence of the El Niño phenomenon. Despite these remarkable climatic conditions, however, the human footprints of this environmental tragedy are also visible.
The rapid progression of this drought and its intensity highlight the need for urgent response actions and support measures to address this crisis. In this sense, protecting the Amazon rainforest is not only vital for biodiversity and the well-being of local communities, but also plays a fundamental role in local and regional climate stability, as well as the survival of agribusiness and global food security.
The portion of agribusiness that supports an anti-environmental agenda is testing the capacity and limits of nature itself and may end up being directly affected by transformations that impact agriculture and food security not only in Brazil, but throughout the world.
Extensive research in the Amazon and Cerrado has shed light on the intricate interactions between deforestation, climate change and local, regional and global economies. The studies that our group of researchers from the Federal Universities of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and Bonn, Germany, carried out show that the current trajectory of deforestation is decreasing the capacity of the Amazon and the Cerrado to regulate rainfall patterns, placing systems The country’s agricultural sector – much of it rain-fed agriculture – is on the path to “agro-suicide”.
Agricultural “suicide” and the scarcity of natural resources
The rain generated by the Amazon forest, on which agribusiness depends, is becoming increasingly scarce. Widespread forest loss results in hydrological and consequently economic losses. And these effects are already a reality: in 2019, a quarter of the southern Brazilian Amazon has already reached the critical limit of forest loss. In some regions, the reduction in rainfall due to deforestation has already compromised 48% of the total volume recorded in the year.
These most affected areas are, worryingly, large soy producing regions or where agriculture tends to expand in the future, such as the Northeast and Southeast regions of the State of Pará, the West of the State of Maranhão, the central part of Rondônia and, mainly, the soybean belt in northern Mato Grosso. And if deforestation continues at the same pace, the losses will be enormous. Our study estimates that they could reach R$5.7 billion per year .
In short, our studies have highlighted that deforestation not only affects the global climate, but also has significant impacts at regional and local levels. The removal of forests results in higher temperatures, leading to more frequent and intense heat waves, which directly harms the health of local communities and agriculture, which is highly sensitive to climate change.
Additionally, deforestation can trigger climate feedbacks that amplify climate change, such as decreased evapotranspiration due to vegetation loss, which can further reduce precipitation and create a cycle of drought and deforestation.
Analysis of rainy seasons
Our research in the area began in 2019, when our team conducted a detailed analysis of rainy season data in the Amazon, using information from 112 rain gauges distributed across the south of the region. Complementing this analysis, we employed annual data sets on land use, covering the period from 1974 to 2012. The results of this study were enlightening: for every 1% increase in deforestation, there was a delay in the start of the rainy season. 0.12 to 0.17 days.
Furthermore, we clearly demonstrate that the probability of an early start of the rainy season decreases as the fraction of local deforestation increases. These findings have deepened our understanding of the direct implications of deforestation on the region’s climate stability, providing valuable information to guide public policy.
Exceeding critical deforestation thresholds
Subsequently, the research expanded to explore the critical limits of deforestation in the southern region of the Brazilian Amazon. We expanded the study area and investigated the relationship between historical deforestation and precipitation patterns at different geographic scales. The studies, carried out in 2021, also evaluated the impacts of different deforestation policy scenarios on local agriculture.
The results of these studies were equally impressive: forest loss in up to 55-60% of the 28 km grid areas led to an increase in precipitation, but exceeding this threshold resulted in a drastic and irreversible reduction in rainfall. This discovery highlighted the complexity of the interactions between deforestation and climate, also with significant implications for the environment and the local economy.
In addition to the Amazon, the challenge of the Cerrado
In the last two years, our team has also turned its attention to the Cerrado. The expansion of large-scale agriculture transformed this biome into an important agricultural hub, contributing 63% of grain production in Brazil and 20% of global soybean production. Worryingly, this unbridled expansion in the Cerrado is on the rise, with an alarming 17% increase in deforestation rates by 2023.
In this context, we looked at what has been happening with the climate of the Cerrado, which we identified as having experienced, on average, a delay of 1 month and 26 days in the beginning of the agricultural rainy season, a 16% reduction in the volume of rainfall and a 2°C increase in maximum temperature since the 1980s.
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The current situation and the light at the end of the tunnel
It is undeniable that extraordinary climate factors play a significant role in the current severe drought in the Amazon, particularly in the state of Amazonas. The current scenario is worsened by the convergence of two notable climate conditions. Firstly, the water temperature in the North Atlantic is abnormally high. This has direct effects on atmospheric circulation in the region and can affect rainfall patterns.
Secondly, the presence of the El Niño phenomenon, known for its impact on the entire global climate system, is being observed. These factors combined resulted in the drought establishing itself much more quickly and intensely than normal. This unique combination of climate events is generating exceptional challenges for communities and local authorities, as water resources, which are essential for life in the Amazon region, are at historically low levels.
To these natural conditions is added human action. As trees are felled, the forest’s ability to carry out evapotranspiration and release moisture into the atmosphere is reduced, affecting the formation of clouds and, consequently, the occurrence of rainfall. Furthermore, changes in wind patterns and atmospheric currents, influenced by the presence of the forest, are hampered by deforestation, making it difficult to transport moisture to other parts of Brazil. This results in a decrease in precipitation, intensifying prolonged droughts and affecting water availability.
The extensive research that has been carried out by several researchers in the Amazon region and the Cerrado biome , both of vital importance for Brazil, highlights the need to preserve these areas for the well-being of the planet . This research goes beyond the academic scope and is internationally recognized, having been incorporated into FAO reports and gaining prominence in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC AR6 report .
They are relevant in the formulation of global environmental policies, and also play a crucial role in the development of forest conservation policies, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting biodiversity in both biomes. They provide a solid base of scientific data that supports decision-making and conservation strategies at a regional and global level, directly impacting the preservation of the environment and planning policies for a more sustainable future , not only for Brazil, but for the whole the world.
And if, on the one hand, they show a worrying scenario, on the other they point out that there is light at the end of the tunnel: we estimate that the effective application of conservation policies, including the full implementation of the Forest Code and additional incentives for conservation, can reduce by 24% the total area that would reach the critical rainfall reduction limit by 2050.
The message is clear: Brazil needs to return to the path of integration between sustainable agricultural production and the conservation of the Amazon. This path includes conserving natural areas, adopting low-impact agricultural practices and investing in more efficient and environmentally friendly agricultural technologies. Furthermore, it is essential to recognize that excessive deforestation damages the international image of the Brazilian agricultural sector, leading many countries and companies to commit to environmental protection and to be reluctant to do business with sectors that contribute to the destruction of the environment.
Therefore, the preservation of Brazilian biomes is fundamental not only for environmental preservation, but also for the survival of agribusiness and global food security. Not investing in environmental conservation strategies is an anti-agribusiness attitude. Without the forest there is no rain, and in the absence of rain, there will be losses. And the bill has already arrived for agribusiness.
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