China’s Official Manufacturing PMI Contracts in January, Diverging from Private Survey Amid Mixed Economic Signals

Beijing, China | 31 January – 3 February 2026

China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) contracted at the start of 2026, signaling persistent domestic challenges and a loss of momentum following a brief period of growth at the end of 2025. The official PMI, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on 31 January, fell to 49.3 in January from 50.1 in December. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The decline in the NBS index, which surveys a large number of state-owned and large manufacturers, highlights subdued domestic demand. The new orders sub-index fell into contraction at 49.2, and new export orders weakened to 47.8. In contrast, a separate private-sector survey, the RatingDog (Caixin) Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, painted a more optimistic picture for export-oriented and private firms. Released on 2 February, it rose to 50.3 in January from 50.1 in December, marking its fastest pace of expansion since October 2025. This survey noted improvements in new export orders, particularly from Southeast Asia, and a marginal increase in employment.

Analysts from ING and other financial institutions noted this divergence suggests that external demand was stronger than domestic demand as 2026 began. The official data shows broad-based weakness across most categories, with only the production sub-index remaining in expansion (50.6), indicating factories were producing more than underlying demand could absorb.

This contraction in the official PMI reversed the expansion recorded in December (50.1), which analysts now suggest may have been a temporary “blip” driven by seasonal factors or pre-holiday activity, rather than the start of a sustained recovery trend. Japan’s Nomura bank cautioned against over-interpreting the volatile readings in recent months.

References:

1. ICIS. “China Jan manufacturing PMI mixed amid weaker growth momentum.” icis.com, 3 Feb. 2026, https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/a/b/c/10544444/d/?news_id=11176953.
2. Trading Economics. “China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI.” tradingeconomics.com, updated Feb. 2026, https://tradingeconomics.com/china/manufacturing-pmi.
3. Chinese Government Website (Gov.cn). “China’s non-manufacturing PMI at 49.4 in January.” english.www.gov.cn, 31 Jan. 2026, https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202601/31/content_WS697d6e93c6d00ca5f9a08db3.html.
4. Investing.com. “China Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).” m.uk.investing.com, updated 2 Feb. 2026, https://m.uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/chinese-caixin-manufacturing-pmi-753.
5. HKUST Library. “PMI Quarterly On China Manufacturing – Issue 63 (January 2026).” ustlfsci.hkust.edu.hk, https://ustlfsci.hkust.edu.hk/periodicals/pmi-quarterly-china-manufacturing-issue-63-january-2026.
6. Trading Economics. “China NBS Manufacturing PMI.” tradingeconomics.com, updated Feb. 2026, https://tradingeconomics.com/china/business-confidence.
7. ING Think. “China’s soft PMI data suggests domestic challenges remained to start 2026.” think.ing.com, 2 Feb. 2026, https://think.ing.com/snaps/chinas-mixed-pmi-data-suggests-domestic-challenges-remain-to-start-2026/.
8. E8 Markets Blog. “China’s Manufacturing PMI Slips Back Below Forecasts: What Traders Need to Know.” blog.e8markets.com, 31 Jan. 2026, https://blog.e8markets.com/article/chinas-manufacturing-pmi-slips-back-below-forecasts-what-traders-need-to-know.
9. CNBC. “China’s factory activity grows at fastest pace since October, private survey shows, beating official reading.” cnbc.com, 2 Feb. 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/02/china-factory-activity-private-survey-official-reading-pmi-january-lunar-new-year-ratingdog.html.
10. Estimize. “China Caixin Manufacturing PMI JAN 2026.” estimize.com, https://www.estimize.com/economic_indicators/china-caixin-manufacturing-pmi?fullsite=true.