Moscow, Russia | 4 February 2026
Preliminary data released by the Russian Ministry of Finance on 4 February 2026 revealed a sharp contraction in the state’s primary source of income, with federal budget revenues from oil and gas halving in January compared to the same month a year earlier .
The ministry reported total January 2026 oil and gas revenues of 393.3 billion rubles (approximately $5.1 billion), a decline of 50.2% from January 2025 and down 12.2% from December 2025 . This figure represents the lowest monthly oil and gas revenue since July 2020, when the sector was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and constitutes a record-low share of the country’s Gross Domestic Product during President Vladimir Putin’s tenure .
The primary drivers of this collapse are a combination of structural market factors and ongoing international sanctions. The tax reference price for Russia’s key export crude, Urals, was reported at just $40 per barrel in January 2026, significantly lower than the budget’s projected price of $59 . This price suppression stems from the substantial and persistent discount reportedly around $27 per barrel at which Russian oil trades on international markets due to Western sanctions, including the G7 price cap . Simultaneously, a strengthening Russian ruble throughout 2025 further reduced the ruble-equivalent value of export earnings .
A breakdown of the January revenue shows receipts from the key Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) fell by nearly 60% year-on-year . Revenue from export duties also declined by 44%, with contributions now almost entirely coming from gas exports following adjustments to domestic oil taxation .
As revenues fell below the “baseline” level required to cover budgeted expenditures, the Ministry of Finance confirmed it would continue its routine operations to sell foreign currency from the National Wealth Fund throughout February 2026 to cover the shortfall . The sustained pressure on Russia’s primary fiscal pillar presents a significant challenge as the government navigates high military spending and seeks to maintain macroeconomic stability .
References:
- Kommersant. “Нефтегазовые доходы в январе упали вдвое.” kommersant.ru, 4 Feb. 2026, https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8400541.
- Neftegaz.RU. “Нефтегазовые доходы бюджета в январе 2026 г. упали до минимума более чем за 5,5 лет – 393,3 млрд руб.” neftegaz.ru, 4 Feb. 2026, https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/914528-neftegazovye-dokhody-byudzheta-v-yanvare-2026-g-upali-do-minimuma-bolee-chem-za-5-5-let-393-3-mlrd-r/.
- United24 Media. “Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenues Plunge 50%, Hit Lowest Level of Putin Era.” united24media.com, 4 Feb. 2026, https://united24media.com/latest-news/russias-oil-and-gas-revenues-plunge-50-hit-lowest-level-of-putin-era-15642.
- Caliber.Az. “Russia sees sharp decline in oil, gas revenues by half.” caliber.az, 4 Feb. 2026, https://caliber.az/en/post/russia-faces-half-drop-in-oil-gas-income.
- Modern Diplomacy. “Russia Faces Potential Tripling of Budget Deficit as Oil Revenues Fall.” moderndiplomacy.eu, 4 Feb. 2026, https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/02/04/russia-faces-potential-tripling-of-budget-deficit-as-oil-revenues-fall/.
