China’s population has continued its downward trend in 2024, shrinking by 1.39 million people to a total of 1.4 billion. This marks another year of demographic decline, highlighting significant challenges for the world’s second-largest economy.
Demographic Figures at a Glance
A newly released report shows that 9.54 million births were recorded over the past year, compared to 10.93 million deaths, leading to an overall population decline. The country’s birth rate stood at 6.77 per 1,000 people, while the death rate reached 7.76 per 1,000.
Gender and Age Composition
Official data indicates that the male population is now 719.09 million, reflecting a 0.1% decline, while the female population remains relatively stable at 689.19 million. Meanwhile, the working-age population (16 to 59 years old) has dropped to 60.9%, equivalent to 857.98 million people—a 0.4% decrease from 2023. At the same time, the elderly population aged 65 and older has increased to 220.23 million, reflecting a 1.6% rise.
Urban and Rural Population Shifts
Urbanization in China has continued, with the urban population growing by 1.1% to 943.5 million people, while the rural population has shrunk by 2.5% to 464.78 million. This trend aligns with China’s long-term economic transition, as more people migrate to cities in search of better employment opportunities.
A Trend Years in the Making
China’s population started declining in 2022, marking the first decrease in 60 years. That year, the country lost 850,000 people. In 2023, the decline accelerated, with the population dropping by 2.08 million. This continued contraction signals deeper demographic and economic challenges ahead.
Causes Behind the Population Decline
Several key factors contribute to China’s shrinking population:
- Falling Birth Rates: Rising living costs, shifting cultural attitudes, and career priorities have led to fewer couples opting to have children.
- Aging Population: With life expectancy increasing, the percentage of elderly citizens continues to grow, placing a strain on social services and healthcare.
- Economic Uncertainty: Younger generations are increasingly hesitant to start families due to economic pressures, housing affordability issues, and job market instability.
- Effects of the One-Child Policy: Although officially lifted in 2016, the long-standing policy has had lasting effects on birth rates and family planning choices.
Government Response and Policy Measures
As China grapples with these demographic shifts, the government has introduced various policies aimed at boosting birth rates and supporting families:
- Financial Incentives: Some cities and provinces have introduced subsidies, tax breaks, and housing benefits for families with multiple children.
- Parental Leave Policies: Extended maternity and paternity leave benefits are being implemented to encourage child-rearing.
- Workforce and Pension Reforms: Efforts are underway to delay retirement ages and reform pension systems to address the aging population crisis.
Economic and Social Implications
China’s demographic changes pose significant challenges to its long-term economic stability. A shrinking workforce could impact productivity and economic growth, while an expanding elderly population may increase healthcare and social security expenditures. The government faces a crucial balancing act in maintaining economic progress while adapting to these demographic realities.
Future Outlook
With birth rates continuing to decline and life expectancy rising, China’s population is expected to keep shrinking in the coming years. The effectiveness of government policies aimed at reversing these trends remains uncertain. However, addressing the underlying social and economic concerns will be essential in ensuring sustainable growth and stability for future generations.
China’s population decline is no longer a short-term issue but a long-term trend requiring strategic planning and policy interventions. The coming years will be critical in shaping the country’s demographic landscape and determining its global economic standing.
