Tough times ahead for South Africa’s braai lovers

Braai lovers in South Africa might find their favourite pastime a little more expensive this month, despite a slight drop in costs compared to last year. Prices for the typical items used for a braai have risen by about 1% month-on-month, but the good news is that they’ve actually dropped by 1.2% year-on-year.

These numbers come from the latest Braai Index, a clever concept developed by Bloomberg and backed by data from the Pietermaritzburg Equity Justice and Dignity (PMBEJD) group. The index tracks the prices of popular braai essentials like meat (beef, wors, chicken portions), vegetables (spinach, carrots, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, green pepper), and other key ingredients (samp, maize, curry powder, salt). By comparing prices month-to-month and year-to-year, it offers insight into how affordable it is to host a braai in South Africa.

PMBEJD’s team gathers data from 47 supermarkets and 32 butcheries that cater to low-income households in major cities like Johannesburg, Durban, and Cape Town, as well as smaller towns like Pietermaritzburg, Springbok, and Mtubatuba. Their findings for this month show that while prices for a braai have inched up slightly since the previous month, the year-on-year trend reveals that overall costs are on a gentle decline, making it a bit more affordable to enjoy a good old-fashioned braai than it was a year ago.

This trend mirrors the broader picture of inflation in South Africa, where food prices have seen small but steady increases. According to Stats SA, the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (Food NAB) category saw a slight rise month-on-month, while overall inflation actually dropped. Specifically, food and NAB inflation went from 4.5% in July to 4.7% in August, while the overall inflation rate dipped to 4.4%.

Some product categories like bread, cereals, meat, fish, and dairy have seen higher year-on-year increases, while items like fruit, sugar, and beverages have experienced lower rates of inflation. So while certain food products are becoming pricier, others are holding steady or even becoming slightly cheaper, balancing the overall cost for consumers.

Zooming in on the bigger picture of food prices, the PMBEJD’s broader basket of 44 essential items reflects a modest year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with prices rising just 0.5% month-on-month. In September 2024, the average cost of the Household Food Basket was R5,255.68, up by R28.54 from August. Year-on-year, this basket of goods has increased by R99.91, which represents a 1.9% rise compared to September 2023.

Meat prices, in particular, have been on a deflationary trend. According to the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), the local meat market has seen slight dips and gains. For example, beef carcass prices dropped by 0.8% month-on-month in August, although they remain 5.2% higher than the same period last year. This increase can largely be attributed to higher cattle slaughter numbers, which were up by 9% in July compared to the previous year, along with a boost in export activity that has helped stabilize the market.

Weaner prices, which affect the cost of feeding cattle in feedlots, also dropped by 1%, offering some relief amid high feed costs. Meanwhile, pork prices grew modestly by 1% month-on-month, though they saw a slight year-on-year drop of 0.2%.

In the poultry sector, prices for Individually Quick Frozen (IQF) pieces—a popular choice for many South Africans—have remained fairly stable, with just a 0.7% month-on-month increase. The impact of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak in late 2023, which had caused a sharp price spike, has finally started to fade. As production levels return to normal, IQF prices have dropped by 14% year-on-year, thanks to a combination of recovering supply and a cooling off in consumer demand.

So, while braai enthusiasts may notice a slight increase in their grocery bills this month, there’s a silver lining: the overall trend is pointing toward more affordable braais compared to last year. Plus, with meat prices stabilizing and certain food categories seeing slower inflation, it’s still possible to enjoy a delicious and budget-friendly braai with family and friends. Whether you’re firing up the grill for some wors, chicken, or steak, or serving up hearty sides of maize and vegetables, you can still savour the flavours of a classic South African braai without breaking the bank.

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