China’s economic landscape is set for transformation in 2024, with economists foreseeing a steady 5% growth over the next decade. Amidst a changing global economic landscape, experts agree that the days of double-digit expansion are unlikely to return, signalling a shift in China’s economic priorities.
CGTN correspondent Liu Jiaxin dives into the intricacies of China’s economic forecast for 2024, gathering insights and predictions from experts to unravel the factors shaping the nation’s economic destiny.
WATCH: Navigating China’s economic future: Embracing innovation amid growth shifts
Economic transition or deceleration?
The National Bureau of Statistics revealed a 5.2% GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2023, a substantial decrease from the 40-year average of 9.5%. Economist Ren Zeping attributes this deceleration to the diminishing demographic dividend and the conclusion of an era marked by large-scale real estate development.
Ren Zeping asserts, “High-speed growth cannot go back, but I don’t think China will grow at low speed either.” He emphasises the potential for growth lies in further urbanization, with China’s current rate at 66%, leaving room for improvement compared to developed countries’ 85%.
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Real estate dynamics
Professor Yi Xianrong sees an opportunity in the real estate market, proposing a shift towards affordable housing as a solution to absorb China’s surplus real estate inventory. “The overall direction is to develop the future domestic market into a market dominated by affordable housing,” notes Xianrong.
As China pivots away from the traditional drivers of growth, economists anticipate a surge in new energy and intelligent development. Ren Zeping envisions revolutionary changes in transportation, citing intelligent driving technology as a potential game-changer to alleviate urban traffic congestion through advanced automation.
Technological innovation in the spotlight
Liu Jiaxin underscores the central role of technological innovation, particularly following China’s 2023 Central Economic Work Conference. With an unwavering focus on intelligence-driven technology, China aims to position itself as a global leader in innovation, ushering in a new era of economic dynamics.
China’s economic landscape for 2024 extends beyond growth percentages, emphasising the nation’s resilience in navigating change and embracing innovation.
The emphasis on technological advancements underscores China’s commitment to shaping the future of global economic development.
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