Brasília, Brazil | 28 January 2026
On 28 January 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of Brazil’s Central Bank (BCB) decided to keep the benchmark Selic interest rate unchanged at 15.0% per annum, its highest level in nearly two decades.
The committee acknowledged progress in reducing inflation, which declined from 5.5% year-on-year in April 2025 to 4.3% in December 2025. However, this rate remains above the BCB’s official 3.0% target. In its statement, the BCB cited balanced risks to inflation but expressed concern over inflation expectations, signaling that a cautious monetary stance would be maintained for now.
The committee projected the start of a rate-cutting cycle at its next meeting in March 2026, conditional on continued favorable economic developments. Market analysts have since forecast a series of reductions, potentially bringing the Selic rate to 11.5% by the end of the year.
Reference:
- EFG International. “Lessons in central bank independence from Brazil.” efginternational.com, 2026. https://www.efginternational.com/us/insights/2026/lessons_in_central_bank_independence_from_brazil.html
